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Statistical Trading: When to do nothing

The Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science blog talks about great actors and actresses who always seem to play parts beneath their talents. Similarly, one can dredge up a plethora of companies that make great products and offer excellent services whose stocks fair poorly.

Perhaps the answer is simply poor timing. An actor can only take on a finite number of projects in their lives. The quicker they are to take on projects the less available they are when better projects come along. Tom Selleck would have been Indiana Jones, had he not just committed to Magnum P.I. Not a bad gig, of course, but the stories of actors having missed out on great parts goes on and on. When they are too slow to take move on projects they are less visible and perhaps less sought out.

HammockSpeculating is similar in that once we have committed capital it is then less readily available when another project comes along. We must find that balance between being allocating all of our assets and keeping assets available for better opportunities, while considering that unallocated capital has an opportunity cost.

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